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🔵 politics

Volume

$753.3M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?25%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?9%

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?6%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?22%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?17%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?9%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?41%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?19%

Next President of Vietnam

Strong consensus forming

Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?86%

Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?10%

Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?3%

Next French Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?28%

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?14%

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?11%

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election79%

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election14%

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election4%

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balanced market conditions

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House41%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House40%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House18%

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Balanced market conditions

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?78%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?16%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?5%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Strong consensus forming

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?80%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?14%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?5%

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?62%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?26%

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?7%

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?66%

Will Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?35%

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?1%

Baden-Württemberg Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?71%

Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?28%

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?1%

French election called by...?

Strong consensus forming

French election called by June 30, 2026?9%

French election called by December 31?1%

French election called by September 15?1%

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Strong consensus forming

Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?98%

Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?1%

Will Julapun Amornvivat be the next prime minister of Thailand?1%

Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?92%

Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?8%

Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?1%

Colombia Senate Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?94%

Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?4%

Will PCC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?1%

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?44%

Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?21%

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?14%

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?58%

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?43%

Rheinland-Pfalz Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?61%

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?38%

Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?1%

2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?96%

Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?3%

Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?1%

2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?56%

Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?36%

Will Yoo Seung-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?7%

Next Prime Minister of Nepal

Balanced market conditions

Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?84%

Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?13%

Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?2%

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?84%

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?16%

Will ACA premium tax credits be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?1%

Nepal House of Representatives Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?87%

Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?11%

Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?2%

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?84%

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?15%

Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?1%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election (Smaller Brackets)

Strong consensus forming

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?44%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?32%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?25%

Turnout in 2026 Costa Rica Presidential Election First Round

Balanced market conditions

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?99%

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be less than 55%?1%

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 58% and 60%?1%