Today's Signal

RSP

Updated: 2026-03-03T00:02:54.425Z

The market strongly leans toward RSP at 74%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~2 days
Total Volume
$311K
24h Change
+$8.1K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
RSP
#1 RSP
81%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
NC
#2 NC
14%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
CPN-UML
CPN-UML✦ Surprise
2%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking nepal house of representatives election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $311K shows significant market interest with 93 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election. If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition. In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal https://election.gov.np/np/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 8, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 5, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

RSP leads at 81%, with NC at 14% -- a commanding 67-point lead 2 days out. $311K has traded across 93 positions with 2 days until resolution.
$311K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. RSP's 81% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 81% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Nepal House of Representatives Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?81%—View market
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?14%—View market
Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?2%—View market
Will Nepali Communist Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?0%—View market
Will Loktantrik Samajwadi Party Nepal win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?0%—View market
Will Rastriya Janamorcha win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?0%—View market
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