Today's Signal

Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:02:13.419Z

The market strongly favors the Slovenian Democratic Party, currently at 93%, with the Freedom Movement at 8%, but the outcome is not fully settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~29 days
Total Volume
$921K
24h Change
+$24.0K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)
#1 Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)
93%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
Freedom Movement (GS)
#2 Freedom Movement (GS)
8%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking slovenian parliamentary election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $921K shows significant market interest with 79 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Slovenian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (dvk-rs.si/). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 23, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) leads at 93%, with Freedom Movement (GS) at 8% -- a commanding 85-point lead 29 days out. $921K has traded across 79 positions with 29 days until resolution.
$921K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)'s 93% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 93% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?93%—View market
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?8%—View market
Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?0%—View market
Will the Democrats (D) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?0%—View market
Will New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?0%—View market
Will The Left (Levica) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?0%—View market
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