Today's Signal

CDU

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:02:07.027Z

The market strongly leans toward CDU at 70%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~6 days
Total Volume
$1.0M
24h Change
+$27K
Active Markets
3
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
CDU
#1 CDU
70%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
The Greens
#2 The Greens
30%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
AfD
AfD✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking baden-württemberg parliamentary election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.0M shows significant market interest with 110 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 1, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 8, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

CDU leads at 70%, with The Greens at 30% -- a commanding 40-point lead 6 days out. $1.0M has traded across 110 positions with 6 days until resolution.
$1.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. CDU's 70% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 70% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Baden-Württemberg Parliamentary Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?70%—View market
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?30%—View market
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?1%—View market
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?0%—View market
Will The Left win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?0%—View market
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?0%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms