Today's Signal

Balendra “Balen” Shah

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:03:32.114Z

Traders currently favor Balendra “Balen” Shah at 58%, with Gagan Kumar Thapa trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~3 days
Total Volume
$326K
24h Change
+$8.5K
Active Markets
9
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Balendra “Balen” Shah
#1 Balendra “Balen” Shah
59%
Quietly backed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
High
Gagan Kumar Thapa
#2 Gagan Kumar Thapa
32%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next prime minister of nepal. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $326K shows significant market interest with 14 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 16, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 5, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Balendra “Balen” Shah leads at 59%, with Gagan Kumar Thapa at 32% -- a commanding 27-point lead 3 days out. $326K has traded across 14 positions with 3 days until resolution.
$326K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Balendra “Balen” Shah's 59% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 59% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next Prime Minister of Nepal event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?59%—View market
Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?32%—View market
Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?3%—View market
Will Harka Sampang be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?2%—View market
Will Madhav Kumar Nepal be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?1%—View market
Will Rabi Lamichhane be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?1%—View market
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