Who is currently leading in Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

NO holds at 78% 6 months out. $9K has traded, suggesting overwhelming conviction from the market with 172 days remaining.

How much money is behind these odds?

$9K total, $1K moved in the last 24 hours -- high recent activity. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.

How do I read these odds?

This is a binary YES/NO market. NO's 78% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 78% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

Macro Prediction Markets

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

LIVE

22% YES

↑ 0.0% (24h)·Last updated: 2 hours ago

As of July 12, 2026, This market leads at 22% odds with $9K positioned by 8 trades and resolves December 2026.

Market Snapshot

Resolution Date

Dec 2026

Total Volume

$9K

Status

Live

Winner / Leader

No (78%)

This market resolves YES if hamas agree to disarm by december 31.

Data Visualization

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

22%

$2K staked

Market predicts YES

78%

$7K staked

Market predicts NO

Liquidity

$16K

24h Change

+0.0%

Average Trade

$1K

Total Volume

$9K

💭

Our Take

Updated Recently

Market favors NO at 78% odds. As of 7/12/2026, this market has $9K traded and 8 traders.

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Market Confidence

LOW

Score: 18/100

$9K traded · Medium liquidity

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

Our Take

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