Today's Signal

Hong Wang

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Hong Wang leads at 100% with Yu Deng close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-14 days
Total Volume
$879K
24h Change
+$22.9K
Active Markets
11
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Hong Wang
#1 Hong Wang
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Yu Deng
#2 Yu Deng
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Jacob Tsimerman
Jacob Tsimerman✦ Surprise
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who will win the 2026 fields medal. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $879K shows significant market interest with 878 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal, however other credible reporting may be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 31, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Hong Wang leads at 100%, with Yu Deng at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them resolving soon. $879K has traded across 878 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$879K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Hong Wang's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Hong Wang100%$220KView market
Yu Deng100%$216KView market
John Pardon100%$120KView market
Jacob Tsimerman100%$90KView market
Jack Thorne0%$124KView market
Julian Sahasrabudhe0%$89KView market
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