Today's Signal

Jacob Tsimerman

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Jacob Tsimerman at 86%, with Hong Wang trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~59 days
Total Volume
$530K
24h Change
+$13.8K
Active Markets
11
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Jacob Tsimerman
#1 Jacob Tsimerman
86%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Hong Wang
#2 Hong Wang
73%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Vesselin Dimitrov
Vesselin Dimitrov✦ Surprise
44%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who will win the 2026 fields medal. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $530K shows significant market interest with 529 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal, however other credible reporting may be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 6, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Jacob Tsimerman leads at 86%, with Hong Wang at 73% -- a 13-point lead 59 days out. $530K has traded across 529 positions with 59 days until resolution.
$530K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Jacob Tsimerman's 86% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 86% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Jacob Tsimerman86%$54KView market
Hong Wang73%$80KView market
Jack Thorne56%$101KView market
Yu Deng53%$118KView market
Vesselin Dimitrov44%-View market
John Pardon36%$85KView market
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