Today's Signal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 53%, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~240 days
Total Volume
$15.6M
24h Change
+$407K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
53%
#1 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Flávio Bolsonaro
25%
#2 Flávio Bolsonaro
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Medium
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
Tarcisio de Freitas
✦ Surprise
Tarcisio de Freitas
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking brazil presidential election. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $15.6M shows significant market interest with 2,058 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 4, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? leads with approximately 53% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?53%$3.1MTrade
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?25%$2.0MTrade
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?8%$1.5MTrade
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5%$2.1MTrade
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5%$1.5MTrade
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2%$1.2MTrade
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