Today's Signal

Flávio Bolsonaro

Updated: 18h ago

The market currently leans toward Flávio Bolsonaro at 45%, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva close behind at 38%, indicating a competitive and still-open race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~148 days
Total Volume
$66.6M
24h Change
+$1731K
Active Markets
9
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Flávio Bolsonaro
#1 Flávio Bolsonaro
44%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
#2 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
38%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking brazil presidential election. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $66.6M shows significant market interest with 9,459 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 18, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 4, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Flávio Bolsonaro leads at 44%, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 38% -- a tight race, only 6% separates them 5 months out. $66.6M has traded across 9,459 positions with 148 days until resolution.
$66.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Flávio Bolsonaro's 44% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 44% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Brazil Presidential Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?44%-View market
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?38%-View market
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6%-View market
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?4%-View market
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?4%-View market
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?3%-View market
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Go deeper

Basics

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Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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