Today's Signal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Updated: 2h ago

The market currently leans toward Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 42%, with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 39%, indicating a competitive and still-open outcome.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~193 days
Total Volume
$29.3M
24h Change
+$762K
Active Markets
6
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
#1 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
43%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Flávio Bolsonaro
#2 Flávio Bolsonaro
39%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Tarcisio de Freitas
Tarcisio de Freitas✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

"This event tracks the outcome of the Brazilian presidential election between September 2025 and October 2026. It matters because the winner will set the country's economic and social policies, influencing the lives of millions of Brazilians. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from primary sources, such as news outlets and official announcements, or when the election deadline draws near."

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 18, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 4, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads at 43%, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 39% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them 6 months out. $29.3M has traded across 3,894 positions with 193 days until resolution.
$29.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 43% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 43% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Brazil Presidential Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?43%-View market
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?39%-View market
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?6%-View market
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?4%-View market
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2%-View market
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1%-View market
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