Today's Signal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 65%, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~58 days
Total Volume
$120.6M
24h Change
+$3136K
Active Markets
17
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
#1 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
65%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Flávio Bolsonaro
#2 Flávio Bolsonaro
27%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Renan Santos
Renan Santos✦ Surprise
7%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking brazil presidential election. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $120.6M shows significant market interest with 120,633 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Aug 5, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 4, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads at 65%, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 27% -- a commanding 38-point lead 58 days out. $120.6M has traded across 120,633 positions with 58 days until resolution.
$120.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 65% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 65% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Brazil Presidential Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva65%$8109KView market
Flávio Bolsonaro27%$8075KView market
Renan Santos7%$9178KView market
Ronaldo Caiado2%$5584KView market
Tarcisio de Freitas0%$13874KView market
Eduardo Bolsonaro0%$10415KView market
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Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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