Today's Signal

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 55%, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~103 days
Total Volume
$103.6M
24h Change
+$2694K
Active Markets
17
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
#1 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
55%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Flávio Bolsonaro
#2 Flávio Bolsonaro
25%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking brazil presidential election. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $103.6M shows significant market interest with 103,603 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Aug 5, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 4, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads at 55%, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 25% -- a commanding 30-point lead 3 months out. $103.6M has traded across 103,603 positions with 103 days until resolution.
$103.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 55% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 55% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Brazil Presidential Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva55%$6683KView market
Flávio Bolsonaro25%$6907KView market
Renan Santos13%$7346KView market
Michelle Bolsonaro2%$7858KView market
Fernando Haddad2%$5875KView market
Ronaldo Caiado2%$4326KView market
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Basics

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Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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