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🔵 politics

Volume

$752.9M

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?25%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?9%

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?5%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?22%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?17%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?8%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strong consensus forming

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?49%

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?42%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?18%

Colombia Presidential Election

Balanced market conditions

Will Candidate M win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?50%

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?49%

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?34%

Texas Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?89%

Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?11%

Will Emily Morgul be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?1%

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election78%

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election14%

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election4%

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Balanced market conditions

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?78%

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?16%

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?5%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election

Strong consensus forming

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?81%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?14%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?5%

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?65%

Will Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?35%

Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?1%

Baden-Württemberg Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?71%

Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?28%

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?1%

Slovenian Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?92%

Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?8%

Will the Social Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?1%

Colombia Senate Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?95%

Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?4%

Will PCC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?1%

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?44%

Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?21%

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?14%

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?57%

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?43%

Rheinland-Pfalz Parliamentary Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?61%

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?38%

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?1%

2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?96%

Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?3%

Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?1%

2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?56%

Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?36%

Will Yoo Seung-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?7%

Next Prime Minister of Nepal

Balanced market conditions

Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?84%

Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?13%

Will KP Sharma Oli be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?2%

Nepal House of Representatives Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?87%

Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?11%

Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?2%

Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election (Smaller Brackets)

Strong consensus forming

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?44%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?32%

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?25%

Turnout in 2026 Costa Rica Presidential Election First Round

Balanced market conditions

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?99%

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be less than 55%?1%

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 58% and 60%?1%