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🟢 macro

Volume

$70.3M

Fed decision in March?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?82%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?14%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?1%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?

Strong consensus forming

New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 8%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? 1%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 14? 1%

Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?72%

Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?18%

Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?6%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?27%

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?27%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?16%

Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?74%

Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?11%

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?8%

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of February?

Balanced market conditions

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?99%

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?99%

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?99%

Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?87%

Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?11%

Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?2%

Opinion FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Balanced market conditions

Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?72%

Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?28%

Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?18%

Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actor Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?70%

Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?18%

Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?6%

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (8% vs 1%)

Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of February?

Balanced market conditions

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of February?99%

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $90 by end of February?99%

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of February?99%

Who will win the Beast Games: Season 2?

Balanced market conditions

Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2?86%

Will Player 38 win Beast Games: Season 2?2%

Will Player 118 win Beast Games: Season 2?2%

Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?

Strong consensus forming

Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?34%

Taylor Swift pregnant by March 31?3%

Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?1%

Largest Company end of March?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?50%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?23%

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?22%

Largest Company end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?52%

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?29%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?15%

Oscars 2026: Best Supporting Actress Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?72%

Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?17%

Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?8%

Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?99%

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?99%

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?99%

Fed decision in April?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?71%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?24%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?3%

Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?90%

Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?6%

Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?2%

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (12% vs 4%)

Oscars 2026: Best Cinematography Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?66%

Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?17%

Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?15%

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?42%

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?31%

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?14%

GDP growth in 2025

Strong consensus forming

Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?90%

Will US GDP growth in 2025 be greater than 2.5%?8%

Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%?1%

3rd largest company end of February?

Balanced market conditions

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?46%

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?33%

Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?18%

How many Grammys will Lady Gaga win?

Balanced market conditions

Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?99%

Will Lady Gaga win 0 Grammys?1%

Will Lady Gaga win 1 Grammy?1%

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Balanced market conditions

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?80%

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?19%

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?1%

Eurovision Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?14%

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?14%

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?11%

Fed rate cut by...?

Balanced market conditions

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?69%

Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?33%

Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?20%

Most popular boy name 2025

Balanced market conditions

Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?80%

Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?10%

Will Oliver rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?1%

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?

Balanced market conditions

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?99%

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of June?99%

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,800 by end of June?99%

Oscars 2026: Best Film Editing Winner

Strong consensus forming

Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?63%

Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?26%

Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?8%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?99%

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?89%

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?81%

Next James Bond actor?

Balanced market conditions

No one announced as next James Bond?41%

Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?37%

Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?9%

LoL: LCK 2026 Season Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?55%

Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?33%

Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?8%

LoL: LPL 2026 Season Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?50%

Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season?21%

Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?18%

Oscars 2026: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?86%

Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?9%

Will Frankenstein win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?3%

Oscars 2026: Best Costume Design Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?82%

Will Sinners win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?10%

Will Hamnet win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?3%

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Strong consensus forming

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?47%

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?22%

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?18%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?

Strong consensus forming

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?11%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026?6%

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025?1%

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

Balanced market conditions

No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?80%

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?18%

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting?2%

Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (20% vs 17%)

Harvey Weinstein prison time?

Strong consensus forming

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?48%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?22%

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?16%

What will Gold (GC) settle at in June?

Balanced market conditions

Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?19%

Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?15%

Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?13%

Who will win the Beast Games: Season 2?

Balanced market conditions

Will a contestant numbered 151 - 175 win Beast Games: Season 2?88%

Will a contestant numbered 176 - 200 win Beast Games: Season 2?9%

Will a contestant numbered 101 - 125 win Beast Games: Season 2?1%

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (11% vs 6%)

Most popular girl name 2025

Balanced market conditions

Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?89%

Will Emma rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?6%

Will Amelia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?2%