Today's Signal

No Bond chosen

Updated: 48m ago

Traders currently favor No Bond chosen at 63%, with Callum Turner trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~98 days
Total Volume
$989K
24h Change
+$25.7K
Active Markets
9
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
No Bond chosen
#1 No Bond chosen
63%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Callum Turner
#2 Callum Turner
21%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Henry Cavill
Henry Cavill✦ Surprise
3%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks Next James Bond actor? (between Aug 4, 2025 and Jun 30, 2026). It matters because of material impact on outcomes. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, deadline proximity and updates.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Aug 4, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

No Bond chosen leads at 63%, with Callum Turner at 21% -- a commanding 42-point lead 3 months out. $989K has traded across 183 positions with 98 days until resolution.
$989K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. No Bond chosen's 63% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 63% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next James Bond actor? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
No one announced as next James Bond?63%-View market
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?21%-View market
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?4%-View market
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?4%-View market
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?3%-View market
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?1%-View market
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