Today's Signal

Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? at 86%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~40 days
Total Volume
$809K
24h Change
+$21.0K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
86%
#1 Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
13%
#2 Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
✦ Surprise
Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking fed decisions (dec-mar). Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $809K shows significant market interest with 116 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 17, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 18, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? leads with approximately 86% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?86%$117KTrade
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?13%$71KTrade
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?1%$196KTrade
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?0%$78KTrade
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?0%$94KTrade
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