Today's Signal

Cut–Pause–Pause

Updated: 16d ago

The market strongly leans toward Cut–Pause–Pause at 99%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-16 days
Total Volume
$426K
24h Change
+$11.1K
Active Markets
1
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Cut–Pause–Pause
#1 Cut–Pause–Pause
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks what will the fed do with interest rates between Nov 4, 2025 and Mar 18, 2026. It matters because of material impact on outcomes and borrowing costs and credit conditions. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, inflation prints and labor data.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 4, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 18, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Cut–Pause–Pause leads at 100%, with Cut–Cut–Pause at 0% -- a commanding 100-point lead resolving soon. $426K has traded across 1 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$426K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Cut–Pause–Pause's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Fed decisions (Dec-Mar) event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?100%-View market
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?0%-View market
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?0%-View market
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?0%-View market
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?0%-View market
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?0%-View market
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