Today's Signal

there

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors there at 73%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~82 days
Total Volume
$1.2M
24h Change
+$32K
Active Markets
4
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
there
73%
#1 there
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
Medium
Quietly backed
Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
24%
#2 Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
✦ Surprise
Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking fed decision in april. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.2M shows significant market interest with 465 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 6, 2026
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 29, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? leads with approximately 73% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?73%$171KTrade
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?24%$381KTrade
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?3%$466KTrade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?2%$232KTrade
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