Today's Signal

No change

Updated: 34m ago

The market currently leans strongly toward a "No change" outcome at 95%, with a 25+ bps increase seen as a distant second at 4%.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~35 days
Total Volume
$25.1M
24h Change
+$654K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
No change
#1 No change
95%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
25+ bps increase
#2 25+ bps increase
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks what will the fed do with interest rates between Nov 7, 2025 and Apr 29, 2026. It matters because of material impact on outcomes and borrowing costs and credit conditions. Market prices tend to move when there are primary sources and credible reporting, inflation prints and labor data.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 13, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 29, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

No change leads at 95%, with 25+ bps increase at 3% -- a commanding 92-point lead 35 days out. $25.1M has traded across 7,167 positions with 35 days until resolution.
$25.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. No change's 95% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 95% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Fed decision in April? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?95%-View market
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?3%-View market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?1%-View market
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?0%-View market
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