Today's Signal

Spain

Updated: 4h ago

The market currently leans toward France at 62% is not mentioned, but Spain is ahead at 15% with England close behind at 13%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~118 days
Total Volume
$362.7M
24h Change
+$9430K
Active Markets
23
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Spain
#1 Spain
15%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
England
#2 England
13%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether something will happen within a certain time frame. It matters because the outcome could have a material impact on the results. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from primary sources and credible reporting, or as the deadline gets closer. Prices also shift when new information or updates are released, giving traders a better sense of what might happen.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 2, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 20, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Spain leads at 15%, with England at 13% -- an unusually tight race -- only 2% separates them 4 months out. $362.7M has traded across 4,322 positions with 118 days until resolution.
$362.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Spain's 15% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 15% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?15%-View market
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?13%-View market
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?11%-View market
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?10%-View market
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?9%-View market
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?7%-View market
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