Today's Signal

AITC

Updated: 11h ago

Traders currently favor AITC at 61%, with BJP trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~12 days
Total Volume
$1.9M
24h Change
+$49K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
AITC
#1 AITC
59%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Medium
BJP
#2 BJP
41%
Quietly backed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking west bengal legislative assembly election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.9M shows significant market interest with 102 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 23, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 29, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

AITC leads at 59%, with BJP at 41% -- a 18-point lead 12 days out. $1.9M has traded across 102 positions with 12 days until resolution.
$1.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. AITC's 59% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 59% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?59%-View market
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?41%-View market
Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?0%-View market
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?0%-View market
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?0%-View market
Will the Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?0%-View market
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