Today's Signal

December 31

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — December 31 leads at 73% with October 31 close at 69%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~212 days
Total Volume
$242.9M
24h Change
+$6316K
Active Markets
17
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
December 31
#1 December 31
73%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
October 31
#2 October 31
69%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
June 7
June 7✦ Surprise
6%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether the US and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal between April 8, 2026, and December 31, 2026. It matters because a lasting peace deal could greatly reduce regional instability, lower the risk of military escalation, and minimize economic spillovers. Market prices tend to move when there are diplomatic developments, official statements from leaders, or verified reports of military movements and incidents.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Apr 8, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

December 31 leads at 73%, with October 31 at 69% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them 7 months out. $242.9M has traded across 242,934 positions with 212 days until resolution.
$242.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. December 31's 73% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 73% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
December 3173%$6593KView market
October 3169%$9KView market
August 3154%$11KView market
July 3140%$4072KView market
June 3028%$17313KView market
June 1514%$6234KView market
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