Today's Signal

May 31

Updated: 20h ago

The market strongly leans toward May 31 at 83%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~44 days
Total Volume
$1.7M
24h Change
+$45K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
May 31
#1 May 31
83%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
April 30
#2 April 30
56%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
April 17
April 17✦ Surprise
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking trump announces us blockade of hormuz lifted by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.7M shows significant market interest with 19 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify). Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Apr 12, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

May 31 leads at 83%, with April 30 at 56% -- a commanding 27-point lead 44 days out. $1.7M has traded across 19 positions with 44 days until resolution.
$1.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. May 31's 83% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 83% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?83%-View market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?56%-View market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?9%-View market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?4%-View market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 12, 2026?0%-View market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?0%-View market
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