Today's Signal

May 31

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — May 31 leads at 100% with June 30 close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~7 days
Total Volume
$44.7M
24h Change
+$1163K
Active Markets
12
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
May 31
#1 May 31
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
June 30
#2 June 30
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking trump announces end of military operations against iran by .... Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $44.7M shows significant market interest with 44,722 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

May 31 leads at 100%, with June 30 at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 7 days out. $44.7M has traded across 44,722 positions with 7 days until resolution.
$44.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. May 31's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
May 31100%$4090KView market
June 30100%$3743KView market
April 300%$13051KView market
April 150%$9489KView market
March 310%$5174KView market
April 210%$4914KView market
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