Today's Signal

March 31

Updated: 2026-03-02T06:03:20.331Z

Traders currently favor March 31 at 64%, with March 15 trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~30 days
Total Volume
$291K
24h Change
+$7.6K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
March 31
#1 March 31
63%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
March 15
#2 March 15
33%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
March 7
March 7✦ Surprise
17%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking trump announces end of military operations against iran by .... Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $291K shows significant market interest with 314 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 28, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

March 31 leads at 63%, with March 15 at 33% -- a commanding 30-point lead 30 days out. $291K has traded across 314 positions with 30 days until resolution.
$291K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. March 31's 63% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 63% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?63%—View market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?33%—View market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?17%—View market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd?1%—View market
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st?0%—View market
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