Today's Signal

Scottish National Party

Updated: 17h ago

The market strongly leans toward Scottish National Party at 98%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~20 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$42K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Scottish National Party
#1 Scottish National Party
98%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
High
Money behind it
High
Reform UK
#2 Reform UK
1%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking scotland parliamentary election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 1,310 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election. If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 13, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 7, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Scottish National Party leads at 98%, with Reform UK at 1% -- a commanding 97-point lead 20 days out. $1.6M has traded across 1,310 positions with 20 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Scottish National Party's 98% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 98% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?98%-View market
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?1%-View market
Will Scottish Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?0%-View market
Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?0%-View market
Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?0%-View market
Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?0%-View market
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