Today's Signal

United Russia (ER)

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors United Russia (ER) at 96%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~136 days
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Change
+$35K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
United Russia (ER)
#1 United Russia (ER)
96%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
High
New People (NL)
#2 New People (NL)
2%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking russia parliamentary election winner. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.4M shows significant market interest with 79 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 7, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Sep 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

United Russia (ER) leads at 96%, with New People (NL) at 2% -- a commanding 94-point lead 5 months out. $1.4M has traded across 79 positions with 136 days until resolution.
$1.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. United Russia (ER)'s 96% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 96% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Russia Parliamentary Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?96%-View market
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?2%-View market
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?1%-View market
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0%-View market
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0%-View market
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0%-View market
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