Today's Signal

Abiy Ahmed

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Abiy Ahmed at 97%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~832 days
Total Volume
$286.0M
24h Change
+$7436K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Abiy Ahmed
#1 Abiy Ahmed
97%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Gedion Timothewos
#2 Gedion Timothewos
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Shimelis Abdisa
Shimelis Abdisa✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next prime minister of ethiopia. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $286.0M shows significant market interest with 286,017 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 2, 2028
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2029
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Abiy Ahmed leads at 97%, with Gedion Timothewos at 1% -- a commanding 96-point lead 2 years out. $286.0M has traded across 286,017 positions with 832 days until resolution.
$286.0M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. High volume on long-horizon events like this typically signals strong early conviction rather than reaction to recent news.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Abiy Ahmed's 97% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 97% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Abiy Ahmed97%$146KView market
Gedion Timothewos1%$55935KView market
Shimelis Abdisa1%$41579KView market
Belete Molla1%$32289KView market
Demeke Mekonnen1%$29328KView market
Alesa Mengesha1%$13579KView market
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Guide

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