Today's Signal

May 15

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — May 15 leads at 100% with June 30 close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-13 days
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Change
+$35K
Active Markets
3
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
May 15
#1 May 15
100%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
High
Money behind it
High
June 30
#2 June 30
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking kevin warsh confirmed as fed chair by.... Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.4M shows significant market interest with 1,358 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Kevin Warsh is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Mar 16, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 15, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

May 15 leads at 100%, with June 30 at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them resolving soon. $1.4M has traded across 1,358 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. May 15's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
May 15100%$525KView market
June 30100%$51KView market
May 10%$783KView market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

Legal

Are prediction markets legal?

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms