Today's Signal

September 30

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — September 30 leads at 10% with August 31 close at 4%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-81 days
Total Volume
$27.3M
24h Change
+$709K
Active Markets
19
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
September 30
#1 September 30
10%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
August 31
#2 August 31
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking israel closes its airspace by.... Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $27.3M shows significant market interest with 27,283 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Apr 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

September 30 leads at 10%, with August 31 at 4% -- a tight race, only 6% separates them resolving soon. $27.3M has traded across 27,283 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$27.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. September 30's 10% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 10% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Israel closes its airspace by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
September 3010%-View market
August 314%$1251KView market
June 150%$5651KView market
June 300%$4823KView market
July 310%$3278KView market
May 310%$2510KView market
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