Today's Signal

Iván Cepeda Castro

Updated: 7h ago

The market strongly leans toward Iván Cepeda Castro at 93%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~44 days
Total Volume
$2.6M
24h Change
+$68K
Active Markets
4
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Iván Cepeda Castro
#1 Iván Cepeda Castro
95%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Abelardo de la Espriella
#2 Abelardo de la Espriella
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
Paloma Valencia
Paloma Valencia✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking colombia presidential election 1st round winner. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $2.6M shows significant market interest with 281 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) https://registraduria.gov.co.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 23, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Iván Cepeda Castro leads at 95%, with Abelardo de la Espriella at 3% -- a commanding 92-point lead 44 days out. $2.6M has traded across 281 positions with 44 days until resolution.
$2.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Iván Cepeda Castro's 95% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 95% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?95%-View market
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?3%-View market
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?1%-View market
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?1%-View market
Will Vicky Dávila win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?0%-View market
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?0%-View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Basics

What is a prediction market?

Accuracy

Prediction markets vs. polls - who gets it right?

Legal

Are prediction markets legal?

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms