Today's Signal

Nigel Farage

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Nigel Farage at 95%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~349 days
Total Volume
$2.3M
24h Change
+$60K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Nigel Farage
#1 Nigel Farage
95%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Count Binface
#2 Count Binface
4%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking clacton by-election winner. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $2.3M shows significant market interest with 2,304 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/ and the UK Parliament https://www.parliament.uk/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 1, 2027
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Nigel Farage leads at 95%, with Count Binface at 4% -- a commanding 91-point lead 12 months out. $2.3M has traded across 2,304 positions with 349 days until resolution.
$2.3M total, $46K moved in the last 24 hours -- moderate recent activity. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Nigel Farage's 95% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 95% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Clacton by-election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Nigel Farage95%$795KView market
Count Binface4%$1487KView market
Andrew Pemberton0%$4KView market
Giles Watling0%$4KView market
Matthew Bensilum0%$4KView market
Natasha Osben0%$4KView market
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