Today's Signal

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% leads at 40% with Flávio Bolsonaro <4% close at 36%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~12 days
Total Volume
$1.1M
24h Change
+$29K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%
#1 Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%
40%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
#2 Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
36%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%✦ Surprise
10%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking brazil presidential election second round: margin of victory. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.1M shows significant market interest with 1,096 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Aug 27, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 26, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% leads at 40%, with Flávio Bolsonaro <4% at 36% -- an unusually tight race -- only 4% separates them 12 days out. $1.1M has traded across 1,096 positions with 12 days until resolution.
$1.1M total, $25K moved in the last 24 hours -- moderate recent activity. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%'s 40% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 40% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%40%$206KView market
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%36%$204KView market
Lula da Silva <4%14%$84KView market
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%10%$263KView market
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+3%$135KView market
Lula da Silva 4-8%1%$75KView market
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