Today's Signal

Mary Peltola

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Mary Peltola at 74%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~20 days
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Change
+$36K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Mary Peltola
#1 Mary Peltola
74%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
Sen. Dan Sullivan
#2 Sen. Dan Sullivan
26%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking alaska senate election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.4M shows significant market interest with 1,401 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 5, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 4, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Mary Peltola leads at 74%, with Sen. Dan Sullivan at 26% -- a commanding 48-point lead 20 days out. $1.4M has traded across 1,401 positions with 20 days until resolution.
$1.4M total, $69K moved in the last 24 hours -- moderate recent activity. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Mary Peltola's 74% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 74% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Alaska Senate Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Mary Peltola74%$817KView market
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%$496KView market
Ann Diener0%$37KView market
Richard Grayson0%$25KView market
Dustin Darden0%$24KView market
David Leslie0%$2KView market
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Guide

How to read prediction market odds on elections

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Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

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