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🔵 politics

Volume

$62.9M

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (99% vs 95%)

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (16% vs 12%)

US/Israel strikes Iran on...?

Strong consensus forming

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?99%

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?99%

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?99%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Balanced market conditions

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?11%

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?10%

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?9%

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by February 28?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?99%

Will Israel or the US target Tehran?99%

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?1%

Trump out as President before 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (22% vs 19%)

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?99%

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?99%

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?99%

US strike on Mexico by...?

Strong consensus forming

US strike on Mexico by December 31?28%

US strike on Mexico by March 31?5%

US strike on Mexico by January 31?1%

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

Strong consensus forming

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?12%

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?1%

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026?1%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Strong consensus forming

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?25%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?3%

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31?1%

Which countries will strike Iran by March 31?

Balanced market conditions

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?61%

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?59%

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?57%

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?14%

Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?2%

Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?1%

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (17% vs 14%)

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (32% vs 28%)

Which countries will Iran strike in March?

Balanced market conditions

Will Iran strike Israel in March?99%

Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia in March?99%

Will Iran strike UAE in March?99%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Balanced market conditions

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?11%

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?3%

How many times will the US strike Somalia in February?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?98%

Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?2%

Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?1%

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balanced market conditions

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?62%

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?26%

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?7%

Russia nuclear test by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?3%

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?1%

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?1%

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (16% vs 7%)

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?3%

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025?1%

Iran strikes Israel on...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?99%

Will Iran strike Israel on March 2?99%

Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?68%

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026?99%

Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 2, 2026?99%

Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?99%

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Strong consensus forming

Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?98%

Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?1%

Will Julapun Amornvivat be the next prime minister of Thailand?1%

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Strong consensus forming

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?13%

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?8%

NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?5%

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

High FOMO activity - surge in new positions

Will another country strike Iran by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?78%

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?63%

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (19% vs 16%)

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (5% vs 3%)

Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Balanced market conditions

Will Trump and Putin not meet?63%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?13%

Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?7%

Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (3% vs 1%)

India strike on Pakistan by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?28%

Will India strike Pakistan by March 31?9%

Will India strike Pakistan by Oct 31?1%

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Balanced market conditions

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?34%

Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?8%

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (11% vs 4%)

US x Russia military clash by...?

Strong consensus forming

US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?16%

US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?6%

US x Russia military clash by December 31?1%

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?2%

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?1%

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?1%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Balanced market conditions

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?44%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?25%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?4%

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

Strong consensus forming

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?36%

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026?2%

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026?1%

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?31%

Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?29%

Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?19%

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?

Strong consensus forming

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by April 30, 2026?22%

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by March 31, 2026?7%

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 15, 2026?1%

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

Strong consensus forming

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?49%

Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026?3%

Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?1%

Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (7% vs 1%)

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Strong consensus forming

Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?55%

Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30?25%

Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?5%

Nepal House of Representatives Election Winner

Balanced market conditions

Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?87%

Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?11%

Will Communist Party of Nepal (UML) win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?2%

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Strong consensus forming

Crowd vs Money

Money higher (7% vs 4%)

U.S. strike on Nigeria by...?

Strong consensus forming

U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?32%

U.S. strike on Nigeria by December 31, 2025?1%

U.S. strike on Nigeria by January 31, 2026?1%