Today's Signal

10-13

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:01:55.641Z

The market strongly favors 10-13 strikes at 97%, with no other option close, but the outcome is not fully settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~2 days
Total Volume
$1.3M
24h Change
+$33K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
10-13
#1 10-13
97%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
14-17
#2 14-17
2%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking how many times will the us strike somalia in february. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.3M shows significant market interest with 1,110 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between February 1 and February 28, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by March 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab and January 12, 2026 https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes. The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from January 31-February 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after March 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike. This market will remain open until March 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place. The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 28, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 4, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

10-13 leads at 97%, with 14-17 at 2% -- a commanding 95-point lead 2 days out. $1.3M has traded across 1,110 positions with 2 days until resolution.
$1.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 10-13's 97% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 97% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the How many times will the US strike Somalia in February? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?97%—View market
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?2%—View market
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?0%—View market
Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?0%—View market
Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?0%—View market
Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?0%—View market
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