Today's Signal

Nuclear

Updated: 2026-03-03T18:00:57.707Z

The market strongly favors Tehran, but with the runner-up Nuclear close behind, the outcome isn't fully settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-3 days
Total Volume
$4.1M
24h Change
+$107K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Nuclear
#1 Nuclear
100%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
High
Money behind it
High
Tehran
#2 Tehran
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking what will the u.s./israel target in iran by february 28. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $4.1M shows significant market interest with 3,772 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 29, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Feb 28, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Nuclear leads at 100%, with Tehran at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them resolving soon. $4.1M has traded across 3,772 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$4.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Nuclear's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by February 28? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?100%—View market
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?100%—View market
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?0%—View market
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