Today's Signal

New Zealand

Updated: 2026-03-03T12:01:50.423Z

No clear favorite yet—New Zealand leads at 31% with Belgium close at 30%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~303 days
Total Volume
$483K
24h Change
+$12.6K
Active Markets
10
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
New Zealand
#1 New Zealand
32%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Belgium
#2 Belgium
30%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Austria
Austria✦ Surprise
16%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which countries will recognize palestine before 2027. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $483K shows significant market interest with 5 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 5, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

New Zealand leads at 32%, with Belgium at 30% -- an unusually tight race -- only 2% separates them 10 months out. $483K has traded across 5 positions with 303 days until resolution.
$483K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. New Zealand's 32% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 32% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?32%—View market
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?30%—View market
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?19%—View market
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?18%—View market
Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?16%—View market
Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?15%—View market
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