Today's Signal

Pam Bondi

Updated: 4m ago

No clear favorite yet-Pam Bondi leads at 99% with Dan Bongino close at 99%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~232 days
Total Volume
$1.1M
24h Change
+$30K
Active Markets
20
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Pam Bondi
#1 Pam Bondi
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Dan Bongino
#2 Dan Bongino
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Lori Chavez-DeRemer✦ Surprise
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who will leave trump administration before 2027. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.1M shows significant market interest with 91 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 5, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Pam Bondi leads at 100%, with Dan Bongino at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 8 months out. $1.1M has traded across 91 positions with 232 days until resolution.
$1.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Pam Bondi's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?100%-View market
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration before 2027?100%-View market
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer leave the Trump administration before 2027?100%-View market
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?63%-View market
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?53%-View market
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?49%-View market
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