Today's Signal

Pam Bondi

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Pam Bondi leads at 100% with Tulsi Gabbard close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~78 days
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Change
+$37K
Active Markets
21
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Pam Bondi
#1 Pam Bondi
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Tulsi Gabbard
#2 Tulsi Gabbard
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Karoline Leavitt
Karoline Leavitt✦ Surprise
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking who will leave trump administration before 2027. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $1.4M shows significant market interest with 1,436 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 2, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 1, 2027
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Pam Bondi leads at 100%, with Tulsi Gabbard at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 78 days out. $1.4M has traded across 1,436 positions with 78 days until resolution.
$1.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Pam Bondi's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Pam Bondi100%$365KView market
Tulsi Gabbard100%$101KView market
Karoline Leavitt100%$77KView market
Lori Chavez-DeRemer100%$7KView market
Dan Bongino100%$5KView market
Susie Wiles43%$59KView market
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