Today's Signal

Anthropic

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:03:43.040Z

The market currently favors Anthropic at 39%, with Google close behind at 34%, indicating a competitive and unsettled race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~120 days
Total Volume
$286K
24h Change
+$7.4K
Active Markets
10
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Anthropic
#1 Anthropic
37%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Google
#2 Google
34%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Z.ai
Z.ai✦ Surprise
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which company has top ai model end of june? (style control on). Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $286K shows significant market interest with 4 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/ when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 10, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Anthropic leads at 37%, with Google at 34% -- an unusually tight race -- only 3% separates them 4 months out. $286K has traded across 4 positions with 120 days until resolution.
$286K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Anthropic's 37% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 37% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On) event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?37%—View market
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?34%—View market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?17%—View market
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?7%—View market
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?4%—View market
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?4%—View market
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