Today's Signal

Anthropic

Updated: 12h ago

The market strongly leans toward Anthropic at 75%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~24 days
Total Volume
$4.3M
24h Change
+$113K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Anthropic
#1 Anthropic
76%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Google
#2 Google
23%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
OpenAI
OpenAI✦ Surprise
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which company has the best ai model end of may. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $4.3M shows significant market interest with 301 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard https://lmarena.ai/ when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Apr 14, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Anthropic leads at 76%, with Google at 23% -- a commanding 53-point lead 24 days out. $4.3M has traded across 301 positions with 24 days until resolution.
$4.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Anthropic's 76% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 76% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which company has the best AI model end of May? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?76%-View market
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?23%-View market
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?3%-View market
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?0%-View market
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?0%-View market
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?0%-View market
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