Today's Signal

Arsenal

Updated: 1h ago

No clear favorite yet-Arsenal leads at 28% with Bayern Munich close at 23%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~68 days
Total Volume
$218.3M
24h Change
+$5675K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Arsenal
#1 Arsenal
28%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Bayern Munich
#2 Bayern Munich
23%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Sporting
Sporting✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks who will win the UEFA Champions League between July 2025 and May 2026. It matters because the winner gets to claim the coveted title, and the outcome can impact the careers and reputations of the players and coaches involved. Market prices tend to move when there are injury reports, changes in team form, or significant coaching decisions that affect the teams' chances of winning.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 28, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Arsenal leads at 28%, with Bayern Munich at 23% -- a tight race, only 5% separates them 68 days out. $218.3M has traded across 3,546 positions with 68 days until resolution.
$218.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Arsenal's 28% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 28% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the UEFA Champions League Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?28%-View market
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?23%-View market
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?17%-View market
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?13%-View market
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?10%-View market
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?8%-View market
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