Today's Signal

Orbán - Hungary PM

Updated: 12h ago

The market strongly leans toward Orbán - Hungary PM at 93%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~258 days
Total Volume
$4.9M
24h Change
+$126K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Orbán - Hungary PM
#1 Orbán - Hungary PM
91%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Starmer - UK PM
#2 Starmer - UK PM
5%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
Takaichi - Japan PM
Takaichi - Japan PM✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking next leader out of power before 2027. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $4.9M shows significant market interest with 127 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Mar 3, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Orbán - Hungary PM leads at 91%, with Starmer - UK PM at 5% -- a commanding 86-point lead 9 months out. $4.9M has traded across 127 positions with 258 days until resolution.
$4.9M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Orbán - Hungary PM's 91% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 91% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next leader out of power before 2027? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?91%-View market
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?5%-View market
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?1%-View market
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?1%-View market
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?1%-View market
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?0%-View market
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