Today's Signal

June 30

Updated: 2026-03-03T12:01:38.456Z

Traders currently favor June 30 at 51%, with May 31 trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~119 days
Total Volume
$635K
24h Change
+$16.5K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30
#1 June 30
51%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
May 31
#2 May 31
34%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
March 31
March 31✦ Surprise
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking gemini 3.5 released by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $635K shows significant market interest with 51 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 3.5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 3.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 3.5 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.5 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Pro would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3, similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 2.5. Products labeled as Gemini 4 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. Additional Gemini 3 models (e.g. a release of Gemini 3 Flash-lite) will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 4, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30 leads at 51%, with May 31 at 34% -- a 17-point lead 4 months out. $635K has traded across 51 positions with 119 days until resolution.
$635K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 51% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 51% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Gemini 3.5 released by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?51%—View market
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?34%—View market
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?10%—View market
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?3%—View market
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