Today's Signal

140-159

Updated: 18h ago

No clear favorite yet-160-179 leads at 28% with 140-159 close at 28%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~4 days
Total Volume
$4.4M
24h Change
+$115K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
140-159
#1 140-159
33%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
120-139
#2 120-139
25%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
100-119
100-119✦ Surprise
6%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking elon musk # tweets may 5 - may 12, 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $4.4M shows significant market interest with 1,796 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 5 12:00 PM ET to May 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 2, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 12, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

140-159 leads at 33%, with 120-139 at 25% -- a tight race, only 8% separates them 4 days out. $4.4M has traded across 1,796 positions with 4 days until resolution.
$4.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 140-159's 33% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 33% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Elon Musk # tweets May 5 - May 12, 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?33%-View market
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?25%-View market
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?22%-View market
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?10%-View market
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?6%-View market
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?5%-View market
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