Today's Signal

Lionel Messi

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Lionel Messi leads at 33% with Kylian Mbappe close at 31%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~27 days
Total Volume
$27.6M
24h Change
+$716K
Active Markets
52
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Lionel Messi
#1 Lionel Messi
33%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Kylian Mbappe
#2 Kylian Mbappe
31%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo✦ Surprise
1%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking world cup: golden boot winner. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $27.6M shows significant market interest with 27,551 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 21, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 20, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Lionel Messi leads at 33%, with Kylian Mbappe at 31% -- an unusually tight race -- only 2% separates them 27 days out. $27.6M has traded across 27,551 positions with 27 days until resolution.
$27.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Lionel Messi's 33% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 33% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the World Cup: Golden Boot Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Lionel Messi33%$791KView market
Kylian Mbappe31%$931KView market
Harry Kane14%$625KView market
Erling Haaland9%$652KView market
Mikel Oyarzabal2%$544KView market
Cody Gakpo1%$1414KView market
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