Today's Signal

Democratic Party

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Democratic Party at 81%, with a commanding lead over the field.
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~158 days
Total Volume
$6.8M
24h Change
+$176K
Active Markets
2
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Democratic Party
#1 Democratic Party
81%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
Republican Party
#2 Republican Party
20%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which party will win the house in 2026. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $6.8M shows significant market interest with 6,768 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 4, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Nov 3, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Democratic Party holds at 81% 5 months out. $6.8M has traded, suggesting overwhelming conviction from the market with 158 days remaining.
$6.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Democratic Party's 81% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 81% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which party will win the House in 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Democratic Party81%$3640KView market
Republican Party20%$3128KView market
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