Today's Signal

>$1B

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — >$1B leads at 100% with >$2B close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-144 days
Total Volume
$106.7M
24h Change
+$2775K
Active Markets
8
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
>$1B
#1 >$1B
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
>$2B
#2 >$2B
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether a new country's market capitalization (FDV) will be lower one day after its launch by a certain deadline. It matters because a lighter market cap could signal regional stability, reduce escalation risks, and minimize economic spillovers. Market prices tend to move when there are updates on military movements and statements, diplomatic developments, verified incident reporting, or changes in the deadline proximity.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This is a market on Lighter FDV
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 1, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2025
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

>$1B leads at 100%, with >$2B at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them resolving soon. $106.7M has traded across 106,735 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$106.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. >$1B's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Lighter market cap (FDV) one day after launch? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
>$1B100%$55057KView market
>$2B100%$25087KView market
>$3B0%$9576KView market
>$4B0%$9043KView market
>$6B0%$4549KView market
>$8B0%$1758KView market
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