Today's Signal

No strike by January 31

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors No strike by January 31 at 100%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-62 days
Total Volume
$28.5M
24h Change
+$741K
Active Markets
1
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
No strike by January 31
#1 No strike by January 31
100%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
High
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether a military strike occurs between January 12, 2026, and January 31, 2026. It matters because the outcome could have a significant impact on regional stability, potentially leading to escalation, civilian casualties, and shifts in geopolitical alliances. Market prices tend to move when there are credible reports from primary sources, government statements, or verified incident reports from multiple sources. Prices may also shift based on military surveillance and intelligence updates, as people watch for signs of increased tensions or potential conflict.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 12, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jan 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

No strike by January 31 leads at 100%, with January 17 at 0% -- a commanding 100-point lead resolving soon. $28.5M has traded across 2,546 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$28.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. No strike by January 31's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the US next strikes Iran on...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?100%-View market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?0%-View market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?0%-View market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?0%-View market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?0%-View market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?0%-View market
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