Today's Signal

June 30

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — June 30 leads at 3% with June 15 close at 0%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~8 days
Total Volume
$4.1M
24h Change
+$108K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
June 30
#1 June 30
3%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $4.1M shows significant market interest with 4,139 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the US government and the US military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

June 30 leads at 3%, with June 15 at 0% -- an unusually tight race -- only 3% separates them 8 days out. $4.1M has traded across 4,139 positions with 8 days until resolution.
$4.1M total, only $52K moved in the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. June 30's 3% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 3% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
June 303%$1163KView market
June 150%$1493KView market
June 120%$1474KView market
June 80%$10KView market
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