Macro · Reality TV

Survivor 50 WinnerLIVE

The market expects Aubry Bracco at 95%, signaling near certainty over Joe Hunter at 2%. $1.6M traded with 5 days remaining. Traders have largely made up their minds.

See how prediction markets are pricing the race ↓

Today's Signal

Aubry Bracco

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Aubry Bracco at 95%, with a commanding lead over the field.

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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon

~5 days

Total Volume

$1.6M

24h Change

+$42K

Active Markets

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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal

Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?

More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.

#1 Aubry Bracco

95%

Widely followed

People watching

High

Money behind it

Medium

#2 Joe Hunter

Attention and money aligned

People watching

Low

Money behind it

Low

Includes both YES and NO positions
Not investment advice
Visuals are comparative, not exact

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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking survivor 50 winner. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 348 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).

2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.

3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.

4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
✓This market will resolve to the contestant who wins Survivor season 50. If Survivor season 50 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Survivor season 50 has otherwise not concluded by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. This market will remain open until the conclusion of the season. The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the final episode of Survivor season 50.

⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

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Updates & analysis

Key dates and timeline
Expert takes and analysis
Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 16, 2026

Event Launch

Event opened and became active.

Ongoing

Active Trading

Market is live with continuous price updates.

May 20, 2026

Resolution Date

Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is currently leading in Survivor 50 Winner?

Aubry Bracco leads at 95%, with Joe Hunter at 2% -- a commanding 93-point lead 5 days out. $1.6M has traded across 348 positions with 5 days until resolution.

How much money is behind these odds?

$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.

How do I read these odds?

Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Aubry Bracco's 95% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 95% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Survivor 50 Winner event.

Candidate Market	Yes %	Liquidity
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?	95%	-	View market
Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?	2%	-	View market
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50?	1%	-	View market
Will Tiffany Nicole Ervin win Survivor Season 50?	1%	-	View market
Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50?	1%	-	View market
Will Emily Flippen win Survivor Season 50?	0%	-	View market

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