Today's Signal

Elon Musk

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Elon Musk at 90%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~228 days
Total Volume
$1.8M
24h Change
+$47K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Elon Musk
#1 Elon Musk
90%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Bernard Arnault
#2 Bernard Arnault
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Steve Ballmer
Steve Ballmer✦ Surprise
1%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking richest person on december 31, 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.8M shows significant market interest with 107 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/. If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78. If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Nov 12, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Elon Musk leads at 90%, with Bernard Arnault at 1% -- a commanding 89-point lead 8 months out. $1.8M has traded across 107 positions with 228 days until resolution.
$1.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Elon Musk's 90% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 90% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Richest person on December 31, 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?90%-View market
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?1%-View market
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?1%-View market
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?1%-View market
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?1%-View market
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?1%-View market
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