Today's Signal

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Updated: 27m ago

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently the strong favorite to win the NBA MVP, holding a nearly 98% probability in the market.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~34 days
Total Volume
$93.5M
24h Change
+$2430K
Active Markets
3
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
#1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
98%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Nikola Jokic
#2 Nikola Jokic
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Victor Wembanyama
Victor Wembanyama✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking nba mvp . Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $93.5M shows significant market interest with 29,845 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trae Young is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 17, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 10, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads at 98%, with Nikola Jokic at 1% -- a commanding 97-point lead 34 days out. $93.5M has traded across 29,845 positions with 34 days until resolution.
$93.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 98% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 98% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the NBA MVP event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?98%-View market
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?1%-View market
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?1%-View market
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?0%-View market
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?0%-View market
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?0%-View market
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