Today's Signal

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Updated: 5h ago

The market currently leans strongly toward Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the favorite at 86%, with Luka Doncic a distant second at 9%.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~78 days
Total Volume
$59.2M
24h Change
+$1538K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Moneyshows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
#1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
84%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Luka Doncic
#2 Luka Doncic
8%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether something will happen within a certain time frame. It matters because the outcome could have a significant impact on the results. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from primary sources, credible news reports, or as the deadline gets closer. Prices may also shift as new information becomes available, giving traders a better sense of what might happen.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trae Young is awarded the 2025–26 regular season NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 NBA MVP award, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 17, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 10, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads at 84%, with Luka Doncic at 8% -- a commanding 76-point lead 78 days out. $59.2M has traded across 5,557 positions with 78 days until resolution.
$59.2M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 84% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 84% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the NBA MVP event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?84%-View market
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?8%-View market
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?7%-View market
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?3%-View market
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?0%-View market
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?0%-View market
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