Today's Signal

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — Yoshinobu Yamamoto leads at 4% with Max Fried close at 4%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~28 days
Total Volume
$1.8M
24h Change
+$46K
Active Markets
35
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
#1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Max Fried
#2 Max Fried
4%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Jeffrey Springs
Jeffrey Springs✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking mlb: era leader. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.8M shows significant market interest with 1,762 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 30, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Sep 28, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Yoshinobu Yamamoto leads at 4%, with Max Fried at 4% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 28 days out. $1.8M has traded across 1,762 positions with 28 days until resolution.
$1.8M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 4% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 4% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the MLB: ERA Leader event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Yoshinobu Yamamoto4%$2KView market
Max Fried4%-View market
Dylan Cease3%$8KView market
Cristopher Sánchez3%$8KView market
Tarik Skubal3%-View market
Nick Pivetta3%-View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Basics

What is a prediction market?

Guide

What does the price mean in prediction markets?

Platforms

Compare prediction market platforms

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms