Today's Signal

Kevin McGonigle

Updated: 2 hours ago

The market strongly favors Kevin McGonigle at 75%, with a commanding lead over the field.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~156 days
Total Volume
$1.6M
24h Change
+$41K
Active Markets
20
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Kevin McGonigle
#1 Kevin McGonigle
75%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Munetaka Murakami
#2 Munetaka Murakami
16%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Carson Williams
Carson Williams✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking mlb: al rookie of the year. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.6M shows significant market interest with 1,594 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 20, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Dec 19, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Kevin McGonigle leads at 75%, with Munetaka Murakami at 16% -- a commanding 59-point lead 5 months out. $1.6M has traded across 1,594 positions with 156 days until resolution.
$1.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Kevin McGonigle's 75% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 75% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the MLB: AL Rookie of the Year event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Kevin McGonigle75%$36KView market
Munetaka Murakami16%$48KView market
Travis Bazzana4%$4KView market
Chase DeLauter3%$3KView market
Kazuma Okamoto2%$229KView market
Samuel Basallo2%$2KView market
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