Today's Signal

Harry Kane

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Harry Kane at 64%, with Lamine Yamal trailing.
0%
New to prediction markets?
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~61 days
Total Volume
$31.7M
24h Change
+$824K
Active Markets
31
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Harry Kane
#1 Harry Kane
64%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Lamine Yamal
#2 Lamine Yamal
15%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking ballon d'or winner 2026. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $31.7M shows significant market interest with 31,682 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football https://www.francefootball.fr/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

How accurate is Polymarket? See how markets compare to polls →

  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Harry Kane leads at 64%, with Lamine Yamal at 15% -- a commanding 49-point lead 61 days out. $31.7M has traded across 31,682 positions with 61 days until resolution.
$31.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Harry Kane's 64% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 64% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Harry Kane64%$3862KView market
Lamine Yamal15%$2020KView market
Kylian Mbappé9%$1831KView market
Rodri7%$1326KView market
Lionel Messi2%$2221KView market
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia2%$1324KView market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Go deeper

Basics

What is a prediction market?

Guide

What does the price mean in prediction markets?

Platforms

Compare prediction market platforms

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms