Today's Signal

Lionel Messi

Updated: 2 hours ago

Lionel Messi is ahead at 42% with Lamine Yamal at 27%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~107 days
Total Volume
$8.3M
24h Change
+$215K
Active Markets
25
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Lionel Messi
#1 Lionel Messi
42%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Lamine Yamal
#2 Lamine Yamal
27%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé✦ Surprise
4%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking ballon d'or winner 2026. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $8.3M shows significant market interest with 8,264 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football https://www.francefootball.fr/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Sep 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Oct 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Lionel Messi leads at 42%, with Lamine Yamal at 27% -- a 15-point lead 4 months out. $8.3M has traded across 8,264 positions with 107 days until resolution.
$8.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. At this stage, volume reflects ongoing reassessment as new information enters the market.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Lionel Messi's 42% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 42% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Lionel Messi42%$252KView market
Lamine Yamal27%$286KView market
Harry Kane20%$1033KView market
Ousmane Dembélé4%$750KView market
Kylian Mbappé2%$317KView market
Michael Olise1%$211KView market
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