Who is currently leading in Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?

NO holds at 98% 82 days out. $938K has traded, suggesting overwhelming conviction from the market with 82 days remaining.

How much money is behind these odds?

$938K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.

How do I read these odds?

This is a binary YES/NO market. NO's 98% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 98% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

Macro Prediction Markets

Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?

LIVE

2% YES

↑ 0.0% (24h)·Last updated: 2 hours ago

As of October 11, 2026, Satoshi's identity leads at 2% odds with $938K positioned by 937 trades and resolves January 2027.

Market Snapshot

Resolution Date

Jan 2027

Total Volume

$938K

Status

Live

Winner / Leader

No (98%)

This market resolves YES if satoshi's identity be revealed by december 31.

Data Visualization

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

$19K staked

Market predicts YES

98%

$919K staked

Market predicts NO

Liquidity

$21K

24h Change

+0.0%

Average Trade

$1K

Total Volume

$938K

💭

Our Take

Updated Recently

Market strongly favors NO at 98% odds. As of 10/11/2026, this market has $938K traded and 937 traders.

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Market Confidence

LOW

Score: 22/100

$938K traded · Medium liquidity

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

Our Take

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